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Angst over robot jobs picking up steam

31 Jan

industrial-robotsIt’s easy to tell when a new technology has reached critical mass – discussions over its long-term effects start kicking into overdrive. That’s happening now with robots and how they are going to affect the human job market.

Conventional thinking has always held that automation and robots have historically been good things, because when a machine takes over a task, the human who used to do it is forced to do something smarter and better. This has had traditional repercussions both great and small, from auto assembly line workers necessarily having to upgrade their skills or maybe even start their own businesses, to regular people simply not having to remember minutiae like phone numbers because machines do it for them. Machines have traditionally freed our brains to worry about other, more important stuff.

However, in a recent 60 Minutes interview, MIT professors Erik Brynjolfsson and Bruce Welty raised a worrying issue – that robotic development has now reached the exponential phase, which means that machines are taking over human tasks faster than humans can come up with new and better things to do.

“Right now the pace is accelerating. It’s faster we think than ever before in history,” Brynjolfsson said. “So as a consequence, we are not creating jobs at the same pace that we need to.”

By that estimation, robots will eventually take over all human jobs, leaving us with nothing to do. This is very bad, says the New York Times’ Paul Krugman, because that means all wealth will be controlled by the people who own the robots (assuming the machines don’t turn on us and kill us all, of course):

Smart machines may make higher GDP possible, but also reduce the demand for people — including smart people. So we could be looking at a society that grows ever richer, but in which all the gains in wealth accrue to whoever owns the robots.

Wired writer Kevin Kelly, on the other hand, takes a more optimistic approach when he says that we can’t even imagine the jobs we’ll create because of this increasing automation. Humans’ role in the future will thus be the same as it is now: to create jobs that only people can do at first, with those tasks eventually falling to machines, whereupon the cycle will keep repeating.

This stuff is exactly the meat of the current chapter I’m working on for Humans 3.0, my upcoming book. I’m more inclined to side with Wired because, if there’s one thing we can be certain of when it comes to the future, it’s that it’s very difficult to imagine. As Kelly puts it:

Before we invented automobiles, air-conditioning, flatscreen video displays, and animated cartoons, no one living in ancient Rome wished they could watch cartoons while riding to Athens in climate-controlled comfort. Two hundred years ago not a single citizen of Shanghai would have told you that they would buy a tiny slab that allowed them to talk to faraway friends before they would buy indoor plumbing. Crafty AIs embedded in first-person-shooter games have given millions of teenage boys the urge, the need, to become professional game designers—a dream that no boy in Victorian times ever had. In a very real way our inventions assign us our jobs. Each successful bit of automation generates new occupations—occupations we would not have fantasized about without the prompting of the automation.

Where Krugman’s thesis falters is in the notion that it’ll somehow be big entities that own the robots. With even children creating their own Lego robots, that’s highly unlikely. Robots are getting better and cheaper, which means that everyone is likely to benefit from the robotic revolution.

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4 Comments

Posted by on January 31, 2013 in robots

 

4 responses to “Angst over robot jobs picking up steam

  1. Marc Venot

    January 31, 2013 at 12:23 am

    Robots are only the tip of the iceberg. Modern life makes it more interesting and usually better but also much more vulnerable to any trouble or misdemanor.

     
  2. Alexander Trauzzi (@Omega_)

    January 31, 2013 at 8:40 am

    I used to service self-checkouts and would see the impact on the stores they were deployed to. Layoffs of checkout staff and overworking of the remaining ones who have to become “attendants” due to sloppy implementation.

    I had one describe it to me as “Before I used to have to train one cashier and she was good to go. Now it’s like I’m training a new cashier every single transaction.”

    While I like the idea of our machine friends helping to make our lives easier, there are some things that mandate a component of human interaction. Like grocery shopping. There are certain applications where it makes sense, and some where it absolutely doesn’t.

     
    • TD

      January 31, 2013 at 3:52 pm

      Self-checkouts suck because people (clueless, slow, irritating people) are still involved, not because a robot has taken over.

       
  3. Chris C.

    January 31, 2013 at 10:09 am

    I would not discount Krugman’s assessment, at least for the short term, as everything in society in recent years points to it (the rising inequality we are witnessing and those who have been paying for it as wars and famine inevitably ravage the poorest of humanity) and it will require a revolution of conscience not to end up with the dystopian future he is hinting at.

    Then again, perhaps our descendants, far in the future, will perhaps say (to our horror as the we, of the “common man”, become extinct as a result), that it was a necessary step in human evolution.

    I shudder just thinking about it, but who can say that this future is not just as likely?

     
 
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